Two gameweeks are rarely enough to pass judgement on an entire season. But they are enough to separate those delivering from those flattering to deceive — and this week, the picture is clearer than usual. Here is who deserves a place in your team, backed by numbers that actually stand up to scrutiny.

Alexander Isak — the obvious buy

Liverpool travel to Portman Road, where one of the league's weakest defences awaits. Isak (£9.0m) has already had seven shots, with three on target, in his first two matches — a volume that usually brings goals, even if the striker has only found the net once so far. His ownership remains a modest 17 per cent. Bring him in before the rest of Norway's FPL managers follow suit.

Rayan Cherki — momentum you should not fight

Almost a million transfers in ahead of this gameweek alone tells you most of what you need to know. Cherki (up towards £7.7m after several consecutive price rises) has delivered in both opening gameweeks, and with City at home to a Coventry side still without a point, the fixture is simply too good for your City coverage to stop at Haaland.

Riccardo Calafiori — good numbers, but read them with a small caveat

Two assists in two matches looks brilliant on paper, and Calafiori (£5.5m) has been a joy to own. In terms of expected assists, however, he sits at a modest 0.55 xA — well below his actual returns. That is no reason to get rid of him, but rather a reminder not to promise yourself that the assists will keep coming at the same rate. Clean sheets from one of the league's best defences make him worth his place regardless.

Two for the watchlist: Saka and Palmer

Saka (£9.5m) has two goals in his first 158 minutes, from a non-penalty xG of 1.27 — a moderate overperformance, but built on genuine shot volume: five shots, two on target. Even more telling is what is happening at the other end of the pitch: Arsenal have conceded just 0.39 xG with him on the pitch, proof of how solid the foundations around their star are right now. Palmer (up towards £9.6m) opened the season with one of the gameweek's best individual performances and is being highlighted as the strongest alternative to Haaland once his own fixtures fall into place. Neither is an urgent buy this week, but both deserve to stay firmly in your thoughts.

Aston Villa: budget options with a single purpose

Villa travel to Hull for comfortably the easiest fixture of their opening run — and they need it. Last gameweek ended with a modest 0.31 xG for and 2.82 against, among the very worst figures in the league. It is precisely that picture that suddenly makes players who would normally never be FPL-relevant worth considering. Matty Cash (£4.5m) and George Hemmings (£4.5m) are the leading options: cheap enough to serve as budget enablers, with fixtures good enough to offer returns right now — not because their form suggests it, but because the opposition does.

The differentials: Van Dijk, Isak and Buendía

  • Virgil van Dijk (£6.5m) — Liverpool have not kept a clean sheet in either of their first two matches (4 goals conceded against an expected 3.89), so this is not a buy for a "nailed-on" clean sheet. The argument is instead that a team performing well above expectations in attack (4.65 xG for across two matches) should settle down defensively sooner or later — a reasonable bet, not a guarantee, and he still has lower ownership than Gabriel in the same price bracket.
  • Isak — already mentioned above, but worth repeating: 17 per cent ownership for a player with this shot volume is strikingly low.
  • Emiliano Buendía (£6.0m) — owned by around 1–2 per cent, with a creative role for Villa, and benefiting from exactly the same favourable Hull fixture as Cash and Hemmings.

In short: Isak and Cherki are this week's priority buys, Calafiori is giving you points to enjoy without promising yourself they will keep coming at the same rate, and the Villa players plus Van Dijk and Buendía are there if you want to break away from the template for this one week.