Manchester City top the Premier League with five wins from five matches. Yet British bookmakers now rank City among the teams most likely to be relegated. The best odds on relegation were 5/2 on Tuesday, equivalent to a probability of around 30 per cent. Before the first reports of the verdict in the 115-charge case, City were at 12/1, or around 8 per cent, according to Oddschecker.
Only three teams are considered more likely relegation candidates. Coventry are at 1/2, around 67 per cent. Hull are at 4/5, around 56 per cent, and Ipswich at 11/8, around 42 per cent. Crystal Palace, who have four points and sit 15th, are roughly level with City at 9/4, around 31 per cent.
The percentages are converted directly from the odds and include the bookmakers’ profit margin. Each figure is therefore slightly higher than the probability the bookmakers actually estimate. That is also why the total for all 20 teams exceeds the three available relegation places.
The market is pricing in the legal case, not the football
City have 15 points, three ahead of Arsenal, and have scored 13 goals in five league matches. It is the independent commission’s verdict that is moving the market, not what is happening on the pitch. The commission found City guilty of 114 of the 115 charges, and the punishment will be determined at a separate hearing. We have reported on the verdict and Friday’s appeal deadline.
Events have moved quickly. Before the first reports on 25 September, City were at 11/1 to 12/1, around 8 per cent. That same day, the odds were cut to 3/1, or 25 per cent, and several major British bookmakers temporarily suspended the market, according to industry website SBC News.
How City could go down
In practice, there are two routes out of the Premier League for City. One is a points deduction so large that the team fall into the relegation zone. The other is expulsion from the league. According to Sky Sports, expulsion would not automatically mean relegation to the Championship. In that event, the club would have to apply for a new place through the Football Association.
A points deduction would have to be historically large to send City down. Last season, Tottenham stayed up with 41 points, while West Ham were relegated with 39. If City finish on around 80 points, the penalty would have to exceed 40 points to result in relegation. The largest deduction in the Premier League to date is Everton’s ten points in 2023, reduced to six on appeal. Outside the Premier League, Derby were deducted 21 points in 2021/22, while Luton began the 2008/09 season in League Two on minus 30.
Timing is a factor in its own right
For relegation to happen this season, the punishment must both be determined and take effect before the season ends. Sky Sports reports that the Premier League wants the case concluded this season, but it is unclear when the hearing on the punishment will take place. City have until Friday 2 October to appeal against the verdict itself, and the club have said they will continue to fight. According to sources who spoke to Sky News, chief executive Ferran Soriano is said to have stated that it will take “much more time” before the case is over.
Oddschecker itself says the market movement is about what is happening in the boardroom, not on the pitch. Until the punishment is determined, the odds primarily reflect the uncertainty surrounding the outcome.
For Erling Haaland and the rest of the City squad, the season continues as normal. After the international break, they face Liverpool away on Sunday 11 October.